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Weekly Economic Update_6.24.2019

In this week’s recap: Wall Street maintains its risk-on mood, even as tensions grow between the U.S. and Iran, influenced by a White House tweet and a dovish signal from the Federal Reserve. 

Weekly Economic Update

June 24, 2019

 

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

The S&P 500 hit an all-time peak of 2,964.03, in intraday trading Friday, while improving 2.20% across five market days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite posted respective, 5-day advances of 2.41% and 3.01%. In addition, the MSCI EAFE benchmark of overseas stocks rose 2.58%.1-3

A White House tweet and the latest monetary policy outlook from the Federal Reserve sent the bulls running. These were the top two financial news items in an eventful week – a week in which the value of West Texas Intermediate crude rose 9.4%, the price of gold went above $1,400 for the first time in six years, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 2%. (Treasury yields fall when their prices rise, and vice versa.)1

 

The Fed’s June Policy Statement

The central bank stood pat on interest rates this month, but the expectations of some of its policymakers changed. About half the 17 Fed officials who have a say in monetary policy now project either one or two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year. As recently as March, no Fed official saw grounds for a 2019 cut.4  

Markets interpreted this shift as a sign that the Fed might soon ease. While a rate cut is by no means a given, traders now believe that the Fed will make either a quarter-point or half-point cut at its July meeting.5 

 

Last Tuesday’s Market-Moving Tweet

A day earlier, stocks rose after President Trump stated that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping “will be having an extended meeting” at this week’s G-20 summit in Japan.6 

Investors were encouraged by this note, sensing a chance for progress in U.S.-China trade talks.

 

Final Thought

With tensions persisting between Iran and the U.S., investors are keeping a close eye on both commodity prices and stock indices. Economic or geopolitical developments could heavily influence the short-term movement of the markets.

 

T I P   O F   T H E   W E E K

A no-exam life insurance policy may sound expedient and convenient, but keep this reality in mind: policies that are medically underwritten are usually more affordable than those that are not.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: The Census Bureau’s snapshot of May new home buying and the Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence index.

Thursday: The federal government’s third (“final”) estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product.

Friday: May consumer spending data from the Department of Commerce as well as the final June consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan, another key gauge of consumer confidence.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, June 21, 2019

The Econoday and MarketWatch economic calendars list upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: Carnival (CCL)

Tuesday: FedEx (FDX), Micron Technology (MU)

Wednesday: General Mills (GIS), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Paychex (PAYX)

Thursday: Accenture (ACN), Nike (NKE), Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)

Friday: Constellation Brands (STZ)

Source: Zacks.com, June 21, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

 

Q U O T E   O F   T H E   W E E K

“If you want to be respected by others, the great thing is to respect yourself. Only by that, only by self-respect will you compel others to respect you.”

Fyodor Dostoevsky

 

T H E   W E E K L Y   R I D D L E

A horse was tied to a rope 5 meters long, and the horse’s food was 15 meters away. How did the horse reach the food?

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: What is the worst vegetable to have on a ship?

ANSWER: A leek.

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 - cnbc.com/2019/06/21/it-was-a-monumental-week-for-markets-with-major-milestones-in-stocks-bonds-gold-and-oil.html [6/21/19]

2 - wsj.com/market-data [6/21/19]

3 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [6/21/19]

4 - latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-fed-interest-rate-policy-20190619-story.html [6/19/19]

5 - cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html [6/21/19]

6 - cnbc.com/2019/06/18/trump-says-he-and-chinas-xi-spoke-will-have-extended-meeting-next-week-at-g-20.html [6/18/19]

CHART CITATIONS:

wsj.com/market-data [6/21/19]

 

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [6/21/19]

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield [6/21/19]

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [6/21/19]

 


Weekly Economic Update_6.17.2019

In this week’s recap: the major Wall Street equity indices see further June gains, oil investors react to tanker attacks, and retail sales improve. 

Weekly Economic Update

 

 

June 17, 2019

 

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stocks advanced for a second straight week. The S&P 500 benchmark rose 0.47%; the Nasdaq Composite, 0.70%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 0.41%. Overseas shares, as tracked by the MSCI EAFE developed markets index, added 0.20%.1-2

The market seemed to put its recent preoccupation with trade issues aside, with attention shifting to this week’s Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. Traders in futures markets now believe the Fed will make a rate cut in July, so its June policy statement will be of great interest.3

 

Oil Prices Rollercoaster

Attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the busy oil shipping channel, helped to push the price of West Texas Intermediate crude 2.2% higher Thursday, just a day after a 4% fall. Even so, WTI crude lost 2.7% in five days, closing Friday at $52.51 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Investors wondered at mid-week if tensions in the Persian Gulf region would soon impact oil output and transport. Looking beyond the short term, however, the International Energy Agency reduced its 2020 projection for global oil demand.4 

 

Households Bought More in May

Retail sales rose 0.5% last month, according to the Department of Commerce. Across the year ending in May, they advanced 3.2%. The previously announced 0.2% April retreat was revised into a 0.3% gain. 

These numbers affirm strong household spending this spring. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the nation’s gross domestic product.5

 

WHAT’S AHEAD

In terms of news, Wednesday offers what may prove to be the biggest economic event of the week: a Federal Reserve policy statement and press conference.

 

 

T I P   O F   T H E   W E E K
 

 


Some people take out personal loans to pay off high-interest credit card debts. For some, this is a worthwhile financial move – but it has potential drawbacks. It can feel like exchanging one debt for another, and the conditions or behaviors that created the original credit card debt may remain.

 

 

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Wednesday: The Federal Reserve concludes a 2-day policy meeting, with Fed chair Jerome Powell addressing the media afterward.

Friday: The National Association of Realtors releases data on May existing home sales.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, June 14, 2019

The Econoday and MarketWatch economic calendars list upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: Jabil (JBL)

Wednesday: Kraft Heinz (KHC), Oracle (ORCL)

Thursday: Kroger (KR), Red Hat (RHT), Darden Restaurants (DRI)

Friday: CarMax (KMX)

Source: Zacks.com, June 14, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

 

 

 

Q U O T E   O F   T H E   W E E K

 

 

“It's hard to beat a person who never gives up.”

BABE RUTH

 

 

 

 

 

 

T H E   W E E K L Y   R I D D L E

 

 

What is the worst vegetable to have on a ship?

 

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: What is taken before you can get it?

ANSWER: Your picture.

 

 

 

«representativename» may be reached at «representativephone» or «representativeemail»
«representativewebsite»
 

Know someone who could use information like this?
Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

 

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 - wsj.com/market-data [6/14/19]

2 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [6/14/19]

3 - cnbc.com/2019/06/14/stock-market-middle-east-tensions-weigh-china-data-in-focus.html [6/14/19]

4 - marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-steady-as-market-keeps-watch-on-strait-of-hormuz-after-tanker-attacks-2019-06-14 [6/14/19]

5 - cnbc.com/2019/06/14/retail-sales-may-2019.html [6/14/19]

CHART CITATIONS:

wsj.com/market-data [6/14/19]

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [6/14/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield [6/14/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [6/14/19]

 

 


Weekly Economic Update_6.10.2019

In this week’s recap: the blue chips have their best week of 2019, as investors like what they hear from the head of the Federal Reserve and interpret the latest monthly employment numbers. 

Weekly Economic Update

 

 

June 10, 2019

 

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stocks rallied during a week in which Wall Street was buffeted by headlines. The S&P 500 rose 4.41%. The Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average respectively added 3.88% and 4.71%. The MSCI EAFE index of overseas stocks improved 2.02% across five days.1-2  

Following a mixed Monday, the market jumped Tuesday after dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Breaking out of a 6-week losing streak, the Dow had its best week since November.3

 

JEROME POWELL’S COMMENTS

Speaking at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the Fed chair stated that central bank officials “will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion” of the economy in the face of “recent developments involving trade negotiations and other matters.”4

The next 2-day Fed policy meeting ends on June 19, with a press conference to follow.5 

 

HIRING COOLS

Employers added just 75,000 net new jobs to their payrolls in May, according to the Department of Labor. Economists polled by Reuters thought that the gain would be 185,000. The main unemployment rate held at 3.6% last month; the U-6 rate, which includes the underemployed and those who have stopped looking for work, fell 0.2% to 7.1%.

To some analysts, the weak May hiring number hints at private-sector concern over tariffs. To others, it simply signifies the possibility that the economy may be at or near full employment.6

 

FINAL THOUGHT

While breaking news does often merit investor attention, refrain from letting the headlines of the moment prompt you into emotional decisions. Brace yourself for further headlines that may drive market volatility, because new developments are arriving quickly in the financial markets.

 

 

T I P   O F   T H E   W E E K
 

 


In planning to insure your business, consider three things: how much coverage your operations need, how much coverage your workers need, and the amount of coverage that seems appropriate for your digital and physical assets.

 

 

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Wednesday: The latest Consumer Price Index, showing the rate of inflation in May and across the past 12 months.

Friday: The Census Bureau’s May retail sales report as well as the University of Michigan’s initial June consumer sentiment index, measuring consumer confidence levels.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, June 7, 2019

The Econoday and MarketWatch economic calendars list upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: H&R Block (HRB)

Wednesday: Lululemon Athletica (LULU)

Thursday: Broadcom (AVGO)

Source: Morningstar.com, June 7, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

 

 

 

Q U O T E   O F   T H E   W E E K

 

 

“Do what you can, with what you have, where you are.”

THEODORE ROOSEVELT

 

 

 

 

 

 

T H E   W E E K L Y   R I D D L E

 

 

What is taken before you can get it?

 

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: How many bricks does it take to complete a building made of brick?

ANSWER: Only one – the “last” one.

 

 

 

«representativename» may be reached at «representativephone» or «representativeemail»
«representativewebsite»
 

Know someone who could use information like this?
Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

 

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 - wsj.com/market-data [6/7/19]  

2 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [6/7/19]

3 - cnbc.com/2019/06/07/us-futures-edge-higher-as-wall-street-rally-set-to-continue-jobs-data-in-focus.html [6/7/19]

4 - cnbc.com/2019/06/04/powell-says-the-fed-will-act-as-appropriate-to-sustain-the-expansion.html [6/4/19]

5 - federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm [6/7/19]

6 - reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-instant/us-may-payrolls-rose-less-than-expected-idUSKCN1T81GG [6/7/19]

CHART CITATIONS:

wsj.com/market-data [6/7/19]

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [6/7/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield [6/7/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2019 [6/7/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [6/7/19]

 


Monthly Economic Update_6.2019

In this month’s recap: the S&P 500 returns to record territory, key economic indicators show strength, oil continues its ascent, and existing home sales decline.

Monthly Economic Update

 

 

May 2019

 

THE MONTH IN BRIEF

Wall Street shifted its focus from trade to earnings in April. On that front, the news was good: through April 26, first-quarter results for S&P 500 firms had beaten expectations by 5.3%, a bit better than the historical average of 4.8%. A strong first-quarter gross domestic product reading and solid consumer spending and hiring numbers did much to quell worries about the economy slowing. Existing home sales retreated again; mortgage rates went north again. Oil prices rose. Bullish sentiment was palpable.1

 

 

 

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH

Statistically speaking, economists and investors found much to like while looking at the latest round of fundamental indicators.

The first quarter had been a good one: the federal government’s initial estimate of economic growth in that period was 3.2%, far above the 2.2% of Q4 and the 2.3% consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by MarketWatch. In March alone, consumer spending increased 0.9%, and retail sales improved 1.6%.2,3

Unemployment remained at 3.8% in March (and the U-6 jobless rate, which factors in the underemployed, was 7.3% for another month). Nonfarm payrolls grew by a net 196,000 jobs in the third month of the year, which was a nice rebound from the anemic 33,000 gain for February.3

The Institute for Supply Management’s twin purchasing manager indexes, monthly gauges of U.S. service sector and manufacturing sector activity, were well above 50. (When these indices fall below 50, the sectors are judged to be contracting rather than growing.) ISM’s service sector PMI was 56.1 in March; its factory sector PMI, at 55.3.3

The most-watched U.S. consumer confidence index, maintained by the Conference Board, rose 5.0 points in April to a notably high mark of 129.2. The University of Michigan’s monthly index measuring household sentiment also rose, gaining 0.3 points to reach 97.2 for April.2

Yearly inflation picked up from 1.5% to 1.9% in March, but this mostly reflected a jump in gasoline and electricity costs as well as rents. This left annualized inflation near the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2.0%.3,4

 

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH

On April 10, the European Union extended the deadline for the Brexit to October 31, temporarily assuaging fears that the United Kingdom would leave the E.U. without any divorce deal. In announcing this agreement, European Council President Donald Tusk warned U.K. leaders, “Please do not waste this time.” The extension has actually been called a “flextension,” as the U.K. is free to leave the E.U. at any time before Halloween if its Parliament can finally agree to pass a withdrawal deal.5

As April ended, a U.S. delegation landed in Beijing to further trade talks with China, intent to make “substantial” progress toward a truce in the tariff dispute between the two countries. While Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin told Bloomberg on April 30 that an agreement on trade enforcement methods was “close to done,” there was still much headway to be made on other issues. China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index was close to the contraction line of 50 in April, coming in at 50.1. Elsewhere in the region, Taiwan’s economy expanded 1.7% in Q1, but officials in Hong Kong announced its economy was slowing; factory output in Japan and South Korea also fell during the year ending in March.6

 

WORLD MARKETS

Gains were widespread last month, with two benchmarks rising more than 5%: Germany’s DAX rose 7.10%, and Singapore’s STI, 5.83%. Other major advances: France’s CAC 40, 4.41%; Taiwan’s TSE 50, 4.16%; Japan’s Nikkei 225, 4.12%; Spain’s IBEX 35, 3.57%; the FTSEurofirst 300, 3.06%; Mexico’s Bolsa, 3.04%; Canada’s TSX Composite, 2.97%; South Korea’s Kospi, 2.94%; the MSCI EAFE, 2.53%; Australia’s All Ordinaries, 2.50%; Russia’s Micex, 2.49%.7,8

There were only two notable retreats last month. China’s Shanghai Composite lost 0.40%, and Argentina’s Merval dove 13.86%.7

 

COMMODITIES MARKETS

April saw five major gains among the marquee commodities: unleaded gasoline climbed 8.89%, WTI crude oil rose 5.98%, platinum added 5.34%, heating oil advanced 5.12%, and cocoa improved 4.64%. Where did WTI crude finish the month on the New York Mercantile Exchange? At $63.80 per barrel.9

The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.23% in April, reaching 97.50 at the April 30 close. April retreats included gold, 0.40%; corn, 0.84%; cotton, 0.85%; silver, 0.96%; copper, 0.99%; coffee, 3.07%; natural gas, 3.59%; soybeans, 4.81%; sugar, 7.18%; wheat, 8.87%. Gold was worth $1,285.40 on the NYMEX’s Commodity Exchange (COMEX) at the April 30 closing bell; silver, $14.90.9,10

 

REAL ESTATE

First, the bad news. Existing home sales declined again. They were down 4.9% for March, according to the National Association of Realtors, falling right at the start of the spring home buying season. (They were also down 5.4% year-over-year.)11

Mortgage rates crept back up. The average interest rate on the 30-year, fixed-rate home loan, per Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, reached 4.20% on April 25; it had been 4.08% back on March 28. Average interest on the 15-year, fixed-rate home loan also rose from 3.57% to 3.64% in that timeframe.12

Now, the good news. New home sales picked up in March, reaching an 18-month peak and increasing 4.5% month-over-month. Developers and builders appeared to be slashing prices, as the Census Bureau said that the median new home price fell 9.7% in March to a 2-year low of $302,700. Additionally, the NAR pending home sales index, a gauge of housing contract activity, rose 3.8% for March after a 1.0% February dip.2,11

[A 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is a conventional home loan of below $484,350 that meets the lending requirements of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but it is not a mortgage guaranteed or insured by any government agency. Private mortgage insurance, or PMI, is required for any conventional loan with less than a 20% down payment.]

 

 

 

T I P   O F   T H E   M O N T H
 

 


After a significant life event, such as a marriage or the birth of a child, it is smart to review your insurance coverage. You may need more (or less) coverage or even an extra kind of insurance.

 

 

 

LOOKING BACK, LOOKING FORWARD

The three major U.S. stock benchmarks all advanced nicely in April – in fact, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed at record peaks late last month. Nearly 50% of S&P 500 firms had reported Q1 results through the end of April, and those collective earnings results helped all three indices rise 2.5% or more on the month. The S&P ended April at 2,945.83; the Nasdaq, at 8,107.77; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, at 26,592.91. Beyond those benchmarks, the S&P Smallcap 600 added 3.81% to finish the month at 975.06; the CBOE volatility index lost 4.16% in April, settling at 13.12 at the April 30 close.13,14

MARKET INDEX

Y-T-D CHANGE

1-MO CHANGE

2018

DJIA

+14.00

+2.56

-5.63

NASDAQ

+22.19

+4.90

-3.88

S&P 500

+17.51

+3.93

-6.24

       

BOND YIELD

4/30 RATE

1 MO AGO

1 YR AGO

10 YR TREASURY

2.51

2.41

2.95

 

 

Sources: barchart.com, wsj.com, treasury.gov – 4/30/1914,15,16

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year Treasury real yield = projected return on investment, expressed as a percentage, on the U.S. government’s 10-year bond.

 

Wall Street is entering May after enjoying some April tailwinds. The earnings parade is expected to wind down this month, and as May plays out, bulls may turn their attention back to trade matters – or to something else entirely. Will stocks lose momentum at that point? It is anyone’s guess. Fundamental economic indicators are, for the most part, still strong. Key housing indicators aside, measurements of hiring, consumer spending, and business activity are holding steady. Remember that your investing approach reflects your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance.

 

 

 

Q U O T E   O F   T H E   M O N T H

 

 

“Everything you can imagine is real.

PABLO PICASSO

 

 

 

UPCOMING RELEASES

Besides more earnings calls, here is what the news stream offers for the rest of May: April’s Producer Price Index (5/9), the April Consumer Price Index (5/10), a new monthly retail sales report from the Census Bureau (5/15), April housing starts (5/16), the University of Michigan’s initial May consumer sentiment index (5/17), the latest existing home sales figures from the NAR (5/21), April new home sales (5/23), the May Conference Board consumer confidence index (5/28), April pending home sales and the federal government’s second estimate of Q1 economic growth (5/30), and then, the final May University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and the April personal spending report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (5/31).

 

 

 

T H E  M O N T H L Y   R I D D L E

 

 

Small, soft, and cuddly, I’ll pull on your heart. I share only my last name with a real-live animal who might tear you apart. What am I?

 

LAST MONTH’S RIDDLE: It is filled with garb, and the price is free; you can take whatever you like, and return what you don't need. What is it?

ANSWER: A closet.

 

 

 

«representativename» may be reached at «representativephone» or «representativeemail»
«representativewebsite»
 

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Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

 

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs, or expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in indices. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The S&P SmallCap 600 Index is a stock market index established by Standard & Poor’s. It covers roughly the small-cap range of US stocks, using a capitalization-weighted index. The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. The DAX 30 is a Blue-Chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) is a capitalization-weighted stock market index that is regarded as the benchmark index for the Singapore stock market. The CAC-40 Index is a narrow-based, modified capitalization-weighted index of 40 companies listed on the Paris Bourse. The FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of stocks comprises 50 companies listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange developed by Taiwan Stock Exchange in collaboration with FTSE. Nikkei 225 (Ticker: ^N225) is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). The Nikkei average is the most watched index of Asian stocks. The IBEX 35 is the benchmark stock market index of the Bolsa de Madrid, Spain’s principal stock exchange. The FTSEurofirst 300 Index comprises the 300 largest companies ranked by market capitalization in the FTSE Developed Europe Index. The Mexican Stock Exchange, commonly known as Mexican Bolsa, Mexbol, or BMV, is the only stock exchange in Mexico. The S&P/TSX Composite Index is an index of the stock (equity) prices of the largest companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) as measured by market capitalization. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index or KOSPI is the major stock market index of South Korea, representing all common stocks traded on the Korea Exchange. The MSCI EAFE Index is an equity index which captures large-cap and mid-cap representation across 21 developed markets around the world. Established in January 1980, the All Ordinaries is the oldest index of shares in Australia. It is made up of the share prices for 500 of the largest companies listed on the Australian Securities Exchange. The MICEX 10 Index is an unweighted price index that tracks the ten most liquid Russian stocks listed on MICEX-RTS in Moscow. The SSE Composite Index is an index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The MERVAL Index (MERcado de VALores, literally Stock Exchange) is the most important index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange. The U.S. Dollar Index measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six currencies. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 - factset.com/hubfs/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_042619.pdf [4/26/19]

 

2 - marketwatch.com/tools/calendars/economic [4/30/19]

 

 

3 - investing.com/economic-calendar/ [4/30/19]

 

4 - apnews.com/73c7e47b547a44d2872fbbe4e0107926 [4/10/19]

 

5 - euronews.com/2019/04/11/brexit-delay-does-the-extension-to-october-change-anything [4/11/19]

 

6 - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-30/china-manufacturing-gauge-unexpectedly-declines-in-april [4/30/19]

 

7 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/worldmarkets/worldmarkets.asp [4/30/19]

 

8 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [4/30/19]

9 - money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [4/30/19]

 

10 - marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/historical [4/30/19]

 

11 - consumeraffairs.com/news/new-home-sales-surge-in-march-while-existing-home-sales-decline-042419.html [4/24/19]

 

12 - freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.html [4/30/19]

 

13 - marketwatch.com/story/stock-index-futures-edge-lower-as-investors-await-earnings-deluge-fed-meeting-2019-04-29 [4/29/19]

  

14 - barchart.com/stocks/indices?viewName=performance [4/30/19]

15 - markets.wsj.com/us [12/31/18] 

 

16 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [4/30/19]

 


Weekly Economic Update_6.03.2019

In this week’s recap: U.S. benchmarks decline as trade issues remain front and center in the Wall Street conversation; major consumer confidence indices are notably high.

Weekly Economic Update

 

 

June 3, 2019

 

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stocks struggled during a 4-day market week as the U.S.-China trade standoff continued to weigh on the minds of market participants. From the Friday, May 24 close to the Friday, May 31 close, the S&P 500 retreated 2.62%; the Nasdaq Composite, 2.41%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 3.01%. The MSCI EAFE index of overseas stocks dipped just 1.47% in a week.1,2

Trade is dominating the conversation in the financial markets, with developments steadily unfolding. Wednesday, China’s state media suggested that the country could soon cut off exports of rare earths to the U.S. Late Thursday, the Trump administration announced 5% tariffs on all imports from Mexico, effective June 10; these taxes could rise in the coming months.3,4

 

MEANWHILE, ON MAIN STREET…

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index soared to 134.1 in May, its highest reading since November; the consumer view of present economic conditions was the best since the end of 2000. Additionally, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index ended May at 100.00, near the 15-year peak of 102.4 seen earlier in the month.5,6

Spring also brought a solid advance in consumer spending. April’s gain was 0.3%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.6 

 

FINAL THOUGHT

While Wall Street remains cautious and concerned about trade, consumers appear to be upbeat, sensing widespread economic prosperity. This underscores the fact that the state of the economy does not necessarily correspond to the state of the stock market (and vice versa).

 

 

T I P   O F   T H E   W E E K
 

 


A will commonly needs to go through probate, and it can also be challenged during the probate process. On the other hand, if you transfer the title of certain assets you own into a properly written living trust, those assets can avoid probate after your death. For estate planning services please contact a qualified attorney.

 

 

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Monday: The Institute for Supply Management releases its latest factory purchasing manager index, which takes the pulse of the U.S. manufacturing sector.

Tuesday: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks on monetary policy at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

Wednesday: Payroll giant ADP releases its May private-sector employment snapshot.

Friday: The Department of Labor presents its May employment report.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, May 31, 2019

The Econoday and MarketWatch economic calendars list upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL), Salesforce (CRM)

Thursday: Beyond Meat (BYND), J.M. Smucker (SJM)

Source: Morningstar.com, May 31, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

 

 

 

Q U O T E   O F   T H E   W E E K

 

 

“The past is but the beginning of a beginning, and all that is or has been is but the twilight of the dawn.”

H.G. WELLS

 

 

 

 

 

 

T H E   W E E K L Y   R I D D L E

 

 

How many bricks does it take to complete a building made of brick?

 

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: If I say, “everything I tell you is a lie,” am I telling you the truth or a lie?

ANSWER: A lie.

 

 

 

«representativename» may be reached at «representativephone» or «representativeemail»
«representativewebsite»
 

Know someone who could use information like this?
Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

 

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 - wsj.com/market-data [5/31/19]

2 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [5/31/19]

3 - tinyurl.com/y3qycvq6 [5/30/19]

4 - foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-wall-street-may-31-2019 [5/31/19]

5 - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-28/u-s-consumer-confidence-tops-forecasts-rises-to-six-month-high [5/28/19]

6 - investing.com/economic-calendar/ [5/31/19]

CHART CITATIONS:

wsj.com/market-data [5/31/19]

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [5/31/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield [5/31/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [5/31/19]


Damian Rothermel is an investment adviser representative of, and securities and advisory services are offered through, USA Financial Securities Corp., Member FINRA/SIPC. www.finra.org A Registered Investment Adviser located at 6020 E. Fulton St., Ada, MI 49301. Rothermel Financial Services is not affiliated with USA Financial Securities.

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