Archived Newsletters

Weekly Economic Update - 1.29.18

THE ECONOMY EXPANDED 2.6% in Q4

The Department of Commerce’s first estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product was 0.6% below the Q3 number, but still well above the 2.1% rate the nation has averaged in the recovery from the Great Recession. America saw 2.3% economic growth in 2017, according to the report.1

  

HOME SALES RETREATED DURING THE HOLIDAYS

Winter chill possibly encouraged the decline as much as high prices and low inventory. The National Association of Realtors noted a 3.6% slump in resales in December, while the Census Bureau said that new home purchases fell 9.3% last month. Existing home sales improved 1.1% during 2017; new home sales, 8.3%.2

  

OIL REBOUNDS, REACHES $66

WTI crude advanced 4.5% in five trading days, settling at $66.14 Friday on the NYMEX. That was its highest close in more than three years. Crude prices have risen for five of the past six weeks.3

   

KEY STOCK INDICES CLIMB

Wall Street’s big three performed well last week, as these advances show: Dow 30, +2.09% to 26,616.71; S&P 500, +2.23% to 2,872.97; Nasdaq Composite, +2.31% to 7,505.77. Meanwhile, the NYSE Arca Biotech benchmark rose an astounding 9.16%.4

      

THIS WEEK: Monday, December personal spending figures appear, plus earnings from Lockheed Martin and Seagate. The latest Conference Board consumer confidence index surfaces Tuesday in addition to earnings from Aetna, Ally Financial, Chubb, Corning, Electronic Arts, Harley-Davidson, McDonalds, Nucor, Pfizer, Pulte Group, Stryker, and T. Rowe Price. Wednesday, the Federal Reserve wraps up a policy meeting; the Street also considers December pending home sales, an ADP payrolls report, and earnings from Aflac, Anthem, Arcelor Mittal, AT&T, Avery Dennison, Boeing, Citrix, D.R. Horton, eBay, Facebook, Ingersoll-Rand, Eli Lilly, MetLife, Microsoft, Mondelez, PayPal, Pitney Bowes, Qualcomm, Symantec, U.S. Steel, and Xerox. ISM’s January factory PMI arrives Thursday, along with earnings from Alibaba, Alphabet, Altria Group, Amazon, Amgen, Apple, AutoNation, Cigna, ConocoPhillips, DowDuPont, GoPro, Hershey, International Paper, Marathon Petroleum, MasterCard, Mattel, Motorola Solutions, Nokia, Parker Hannifin, Quest Diagnostics, Ralph Lauren, Regis, Royal Dutch Shell, Time Warner, Valero Energy, and Visa. The Department of Labor’s January jobs report and the final January University of Michigan consumer sentiment index roll out Friday, plus earnings from Chevron, Clorox, Estee Lauder, ExxonMobil, Honda, Merck, Phillips 66, Sony, Sprint, and Weyerhaeuser.

 

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+7.68

+32.42

+18.31

+11.80

NASDAQ

+8.73

+32.72

+27.66

+22.27

S&P 500

+7.45

+25.09

+18.23

+11.59

REAL YIELD

1/26 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.57%

0.43%

-0.56%

1.34%

 

 


Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 1/26/184,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

Citations.

1 - nytimes.com/2018/01/26/business/economy/gdp-economy.html [1/26/18] 

2 - apnews.com/721aacbd0d354c2e8c4e32d6daf332da [1/25/18]

3 - marketwatch.com/story/oil-takes-to-split-path-as-dollar-rally-fades-2018-01-26 [1/26/18]

4 - markets.wsj.com/us [1/26/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F26%2F17&x=0&y=0 [1/26/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F26%2F17&x=0&y=0 [1/26/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F26%2F17&x=0&y=0 [1/26/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F25%2F13&x=0&y=0 [1/26/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F25%2F13&x=0&y=0 [1/26/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F25%2F13&x=0&y=0 [1/26/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F25%2F08&x=0&y=0 [1/26/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F25%2F08&x=0&y=0 [1/26/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F25%2F08&x=0&y=0 [1/26/18]

6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [1/26/18]

7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [1/26/18]  


Weekly Economic Update - 1.22.18

CONSUMER SENTIMENT READING COOLS

The initial January University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 94.4 last week, 1.5 points beneath its final reading of 2017 and 4.1 points under its level of one year ago. Without prompting, 34% of respondents to the latest UMich survey brought up the subject of the recent federal tax reforms; 70% of them felt the reforms would have a positive effect on their lives; 18%, a negative effect.1

   

WINTER WEAKENS HOUSING STARTS

New Census Bureau data shows groundbreaking decreased 8.2% in December after a (revised) 3.0% November gain. Building permits ticked down 0.1% last month.2

  

BITCOIN PLUMMETS & RECOVERS; OIL DESCENDS

Commodity investors watched the premier digital currency crest above $14,000 Monday, sink under $10,000 Wednesday, and rebound to a price of $11,400.35 as Wall Street’s trading week ended. Friday, the International Energy Agency predicted U.S. oil output would near a 50-year peak in 2018. That hurt prices and left WTI crude 1.5% lower for the week; it fell to $63.37 at Friday’s closing bell.3,4

  

DOW REACHES ITS SECOND MILESTONE IN A MONTH

Last week, the blue chips improved 1.04% on the way to a Friday settlement of 26,071.72. On Tuesday, the benchmark closed above 26,000 to complete the quickest 1,000-point climb in its history: it took only eight days. (The previous record was 23 trading sessions.) The Nasdaq Composite (+1.04% to 7,336.38) and S&P 500 (+0.86% to 2,810.30) also logged weekly advances.5,6

      

THIS WEEK: Halliburton, Netflix, TD Ameritrade, UBS, and Zions Bancorp issue earnings Monday. Capital One, Fifth Third, Johnson & Johnson, Kimberly-Clark, Procter & Gamble, State Street, Texas Instruments, Travelers Companies, and Verizon join the earnings parade Tuesday. December existing home sales figures appear Wednesday, plus earnings from Abbott Labs, Ameriprise Financial, Comcast, Discover, Ford Motor Co., General Dynamics, General Electric, Grainger, Legg Mason, Northern Trust, Novartis, Rockwell Automation, Royal Caribbean International, Stanley Black & Decker, United Rentals, and Whirlpool. On Thursday, December new home sales numbers emerge, plus the latest initial jobless claims report and earnings from 3M, Alaska Air Group, American Airlines, Biogen, Caterpillar, Celanese, Celgene, Fiat Chrysler, Freeport-McMoRan, Intel, JetBlue, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Sherwin Williams, Southwest Airlines, Starbucks, Union Pacific, and Western Digital. The first estimate of Q4 economic expansion arrives Friday, along with earnings news from Colgate-Palmolive, Honeywell, NextEra Energy, and Rockwell Collins.

  

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+5.47

+32.13

+18.20

+11.55

NASDAQ

+6.27

+32.42

+26.81

+21.35

S&P 500

+5.11

+24.15

+17.82

+11.21

REAL YIELD

1/19 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.58%

0.43%

-0.66%

1.42%

 

 


Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 1/19/186,7,8,9

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

Citations.

1 - sca.isr.umich.edu/ [1/19/18]

2 - investing.com/economic-calendar/ [1/19/18]

3 - marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-slip-from-3-year-high-as-traders-wait-for-trump-move-on-iran-2018-01-12 [1/19/18]

4 - marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-sink-1-head-for-biggest-weekly-loss-since-oct-2018-01-19/ [1/19/18]

5 - nytimes.com/reuters/2018/01/17/business/17reuters-usa-stocks-dow-factbox.html [1/17/18]

6 - markets.wsj.com/us [1/19/18]

7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F19%2F17&x=0&y=0 [1/19/18]

7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F19%2F17&x=0&y=0 [1/19/18]

7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F19%2F17&x=0&y=0 [1/19/18]

7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F18%2F13&x=0&y=0 [1/19/18]

7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F18%2F13&x=0&y=0 [1/19/18]

7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F18%2F13&x=0&y=0 [1/19/18]

7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F18%2F08&x=0&y=0 [1/19/18]

7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F18%2F08&x=0&y=0 [1/19/18]

7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F18%2F08&x=0&y=0 [1/19/18]

8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [1/19/18]

9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [1/19/18]  


Weekly Economic Update - 1.15.18

RETAIL SALES ROSE IN DECEMBER

Consumers spent freely during the holidays: the latest Census Bureau report shows a nice advance for retail purchases. They improved 0.4% last month, with core retail sales up by the same amount.1

  

PRODUCER PRICES UNEXPECTEDLY RETREAT

In December, wholesale inflation declined for the first time in 18 months. Even with that 0.1% dip, the Producer Price Index advanced 2.6% for 2017, compared with 1.7% in 2016. Households contended with 2.1% inflation during 2017 according to the Consumer Price Index, which ticked up 0.1% last month. Core consumer prices rose 0.3% in December, so the 2017 core CPI gain was 1.8%.1,2

  

OIL CLIMBS AGAIN

Last week, prices benefited from reduced reserves and extensions of U.S. sanctions relief against Iran. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $64.30 Friday on the NYMEX, advancing 4.7% across five trading days. That was its highest price since December 2014.3

  

another SOLID WEEK FOR EQUITIES

Bulls still far outnumber bears on Wall Street, as last week’s major index performances show. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.01% to 25,803.19; the Nasdaq Composite, 1.74% to 7,261.06; the S&P 500, 1.57% to 2,786.24. The last five market days also brought a 2.05% gain for the Russell 2000. The PHLX Oil Service index ended the week up 23.24% month-over-month.4

      

THIS WEEK: U.S. financial markets are mostly closed on Martin Luther King Jr. Day (futures do trade on Monday morning). Citigroup, Comerica, CSX, and UnitedHealth Group release earnings on Tuesday. Wednesday’s earnings announcements include news from Alcoa, Bank of America, Fastenal, Goldman Sachs, and U.S. Bancorp; in addition, the Federal Reserve offers a new Beige Book. On Thursday, American Express, BoNY Mellon, BB&T, J.B. Hunt, IBM, KeyCorp, and Morgan Stanley announce earnings; investors will consider new initial claims data and a report on December construction activity as well. Friday, Regions Financial, Schlumberger, and SunTrust Bank report earnings, and the preliminary January consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan appears.

 

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+4.39

+29.72

+18.26

+10.47

NASDAQ

+5.18

+30.89

+26.46

+19.76

S&P 500

+4.21

+22.72

+17.86

+9.89

REAL YIELD

1/12 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.54%

0.38%

-0.63%

1.56%

 

 


Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 1/12/184,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

Citations.

1 - investing.com/economic-calendar/ [1/12/18]

2 - thestreet.com/story/14446654/1/producer-price-index-falls-for-first-time-since-2016.html [1/11/18]

3 - marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-slip-from-3-year-high-as-traders-wait-for-trump-move-on-iran-2018-01-12 [1/12/18]

4 - markets.wsj.com/us [1/12/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F12%2F17&x=0&y=0 [1/12/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F12%2F17&x=0&y=0 [1/12/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F12%2F17&x=0&y=0 [1/12/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F11%2F13&x=0&y=0 [1/12/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F11%2F13&x=0&y=0 [1/12/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F11%2F13&x=0&y=0 [1/12/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F11%2F08&x=0&y=0 [1/12/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F11%2F08&x=0&y=0 [1/12/18]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F11%2F08&x=0&y=0 [1/12/18]

6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [1/12/18]

7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [1/12/18]  


Weekly Economic Update - 1.8.18

LOW UNEMPLOYMENT, BUT LESS HIRING

The Department of Labor’s latest jobs report announced a headline unemployment rate of only 4.1% in December, but it also showed companies adding just 148,000 net new workers last month. Even so, net payroll growth averaged 204,000 during the last three months. In hiring terms, the health care sector grew more than any other industry in 2017, expanding by 300,000 jobs. Wages rose 2.5% last year. The broader U-6 jobless rate, encompassing the underemployed, ticked up a tenth of a point to 8.1%, which was still half a percent below its level of a year ago.1

  

MORE FACTORY ACTIVITY DURING THE HOLIDAYS

December saw U.S. manufacturers pick up their pace. The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing manager index for the factory sector surprised to the upside with a fine reading of 59.7. Economists polled by Briefing.com had projected the PMI to decline 0.2 points to 58.0. ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI fell in December, weakening 1.5 points to a reading of 55.9.2

  

WTI CRUDE CONTINUES TO RALLY

Finishing at $61.41 on the NYMEX Friday, it advanced 1.7% last week. Investor concern over anti-government protests in Iran and stateside data showing smaller crude reserves helped. Oil settled at $62.01 Thursday, which was a peak unmatched in roughly three years.3

  

A SHORT, NOTEWORTHY WEEK STARTS THE YEAR

During January 2-5, the Dow Jones Industrial Average topped 25,000 and the Nasdaq Composite went above 7,000. The blue chips ended the week at 25,295.87; the Nasdaq, at 7,136.56; the S&P 500, at 2,743.15. The 4-day gains: Dow, 2.18%; Nasdaq, 3.35%; S&P, 2.50%. The CBOE VIX wrapped up the week down at 9.22.4,5

      

THIS WEEK: Nothing major is scheduled for Monday or Tuesday. On Wednesday, KB Home, Lennar, and Supervalu present earnings. The December Producer Price Index appears Thursday, plus a new initial claims report. Friday, a new earnings season starts off with announcements from BlackRock, Infosys, JPMorgan Chase, PNC Financial, and Wells Fargo, and three important economic indicators arrive for consideration – the December retail sales report from the Department of Commerce, the December Consumer Price Index, and the preliminary January consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan.

  

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+2.18

+27.12

+17.66

+9.76

NASDAQ

+3.35

+30.04

+26.02

+18.49

S&P 500

+2.50

+20.90

+17.41

+9.43

REAL YIELD

1/5 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.46%

0.42%

-0.55%

1.56%

 

 


Sources: finance.google.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 1/5/185,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

Citations.

1 - forbes.com/sites/maggiemcgrath/2018/01/05/unemployment-rate-holds-steady-at-4-1-as-u-s-adds-148000-jobs-in-december/ [1/5/18]

2 - briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2018/01/01-05 [1/5/18]

3 - marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-fall-losing-grip-on-3-year-high-2018-01-05 [1/5/18]

4 - markets.wsj.com/us [1/5/18]

5 - finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI&ei=POlPWoHEE5eJjAHrvInABw [1/5/18]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F5%2F17&x=0&y=0 [1/5/18]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F5%2F17&x=0&y=0 [1/5/18]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F5%2F17&x=0&y=0 [1/5/18]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F4%2F13&x=0&y=0 [1/5/18]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F4%2F13&x=0&y=0 [1/5/18]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F4%2F13&x=0&y=0 [1/5/18]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F4%2F08&x=0&y=0 [1/5/18]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F4%2F08&x=0&y=0 [1/5/18]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F4%2F08&x=0&y=0 [1/5/18]

7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [1/5/18]

8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [1/5/18]


Weekly Economic Update - 1.1.18

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DECLINES

In December, the Conference Board’s monthly index fell sharply from its lofty November reading of 128.6. That number was a 17-year high. Economists polled by Bloomberg expected a retreat to 128.0; instead, the gauge dropped to 122.1, which was still one of its best readings in the past 15 years. Lynn Franco, the Conference Board’s director of economic indicators, noted that consumer expectations remain at “historically strong levels, suggesting economic growth will continue well into 2018.”1

  

OIL ENDS 2017 ABOVE $60

The yearlong comeback of light sweet crude culminated in a December 29 NYMEX close of $60.42, marking the commodity’s best settlement since the spring of 2015. Signs of reduced output and supply disruptions helped oil rally last week.2

  

HOME PRICES UP 6.2% in 12 MONTHS

That is the conclusion of the October S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index, a survey of home values across 20 U.S. regions released last week. In other housing news, the National Association of Realtors pending home sales index rose 0.2% in November, taking its annualized gain to 0.8%. The small advance is understandable; across the 12 months ending in November, existing home inventory thinned by nearly 10%.3

  

A TERRIFIC YEAR FOR EQUITIES CONCLUDES

In 2017, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 25.08%; the S&P 500, 19.42%; the Nasdaq Composite, 28.24%. The year’s last market week saw investors pocketing some gains: across four days, the Dow retreated 0.06% to 24,719.22; the S&P, 0.38% to 2,673.61; the Nasdaq, 0.80% to 6,903.39. The Russell 2000 small-cap benchmark finished 2017 at 1,535.51, rising 13.14% for the year; the CBOE VIX “fear index” lost 21.37% during 2017, wrapping up the year at 11.04.4,5

      

THIS WEEK: Monday, U.S. financial markets are closed in observance of New Year’s Day. Nothing major is slated for Tuesday. Wednesday, the Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its December policy meeting, the Institute for Supply Management presents its December factory PMI, and Rite Aid announces quarterly earnings. Thursday, a new Challenger job-cut report and ADP payrolls report arrive along with earnings from Monsanto, Sonic, and Walgreens Boots Alliance. The Department of Labor’s December employment report appears Friday, plus quarterly results from Constellation Brands.

 

% CHANGE

2017

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+25.08

+24.72

+18.21

+8.49

NASDAQ

+28.24

+27.09

+26.64

+15.81

S&P 500

+19.42

+18.87

+18.13

+8.08

REAL YIELD

12/29 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.44%

0.55%

-0.73%

1.78%

 

 


Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 12/29/174,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

  

Citations.

1 - businessinsider.com/consumer-confidence-conference-board-december-2017-2017-12 [12/27/17]

2 - marketwatch.com/story/oil-ends-above-60-for-the-first-time-in-about-2-12-years-2017-12-29 [12/29/17]

3 - tinyurl.com/ycwuvg59 [12/27/17]

4 - markets.wsj.com/us [12/29/17]

5 - finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXSP:.INX&ei=5rRGWvGeL4GC2Aaah52YDw [12/29/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F29%2F16&x=0&y=0 [12/29/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F29%2F16&x=0&y=0 [12/29/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F29%2F16&x=0&y=0 [12/29/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F28%2F12&x=0&y=0 [12/29/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F28%2F12&x=0&y=0 [12/29/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F28%2F12&x=0&y=0 [12/29/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F28%2F07&x=0&y=0 [12/29/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F28%2F07&x=0&y=0 [12/29/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F28%2F07&x=0&y=0 [12/29/17]

7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/29/17]

8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/29/17]

 


Damian Rothermel is an investment adviser representative of, and securities and advisory services are offered through, USA Financial Securities Corp., Member FINRA/SIPC. www.finra.org A Registered Investment Adviser located at 6020 E. Fulton St., Ada, MI 49301. Rothermel Financial Services is not affiliated with USA Financial Securities.

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